The hottest civil UAV industry is facing a reshuff

2022-07-23
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The civil UAV industry is facing a reshuffle, and its development has reached a bottleneck period When talking to Yuchen about the industry situation, an AVIC UAV professional who did not want to be named lamented that the dazzling product display could not hide the reality of the proliferation of homogeneity

thousands of UAV enterprises across the country are making rapid offensives in the wave of change in the new era. It is an indisputable fact that Chinese civil UAVs, which seem to be developing rapidly, have a flood of homogenization in terms of their core technologies. The enthusiasm of capital did not fade. At the end of November, CorBit announced that it had completed the pre IPO round of financing of 200million yuan led by Meihua Angel; Money burning wars and industry reshuffles continue one after another; Black flight, air traffic control and navigation policy are eternal topics. But in the past two years, from the perspective of technology, the replacement frequency is not as fast as expected. To some extent, it has even entered the bottleneck period of development

linliang's eye-catching products and the reality of homogenization

"there have been many air shows in the past two years, but it seems that they are basically the same. There are few new technologies. However, the progress of biomaterials and 3D printing technology has brought a brighter future to the automotive industry. How many things brighten people's eyes." When talking to Yuchen about the industry situation, an AVIC UAV professional who did not want to be named lamented that the dazzling product display could not hide the reality of the proliferation of homogeneity

"the development of UAV technology has reached a bottleneck." The industry expert told Yuchen that as the development and breakthrough of new technologies become more and more difficult, it is valuable that the performance of the aircraft platform system can be limited by traditional technical means. It is difficult to make a generational leap of more than 20%. Therefore, as shown by the rotating exhibitions, when everyone has the same technical level, the subtle differences are mainly reflected in the market and channel, quality and reputation, man-machine design and service

2015 is the so-called "first year of UAV". Everyone is flocking to the field of UAV, and there is a blue ocean voice inside and outside the industry. However, up to now, the "red ocean" argument has gradually gained the upper hand. According to the previous research report of Taber Research Institute, in 2015, there were 81 financing cases in the global UAV field, with a total financing amount of 4billion yuan, accounting for half of the Chinese market alone. However, in 2016, "the investment fever in the UAV market has receded like a tide, and the industrial development has directly slipped from the hot to the bottom." During this period, many UAV enterprises closed down or adjusted their business. This momentum has gradually spread from the market segment to the entire UAV industry. Some time ago, CorBit raised RMB 200million, which also caused a ripple in the industry. Why did it move so quickly from the "blue ocean" to the edge of the "red ocean", and why is the research and development of UAVs no longer favored by capital

"The investment cases in recent years can be divided into three types: focusing on industrial integration, material processing, composite molding, training, after-sales, small airports, navigable towns... Connecting the whole industrial chain; focusing on capital operation, maintaining basic business operation, focusing on the financial industry and real estate industry as a breakthrough point, increasing the value of money in another way; focusing on new technology breakthroughs, occupying the technological commanding heights of the industry. Most of them are the first two , few people really focus on technology accumulation and breakthrough. " The professional told Yuchen: "there is no really own core technology, some of you can design it by others, and there is no gap between them." In his opinion, it is those basic fields that can produce generational differences. For example, in terms of energy, if the high-life batteries represented by lithium sulfur batteries can break through the discharge rate problem, it is a generation change and leap forward

anti UAV is also a hot spot in recent years. Recently, there was an on-site demonstration conference, where dozens of enterprises competed in a big competition. Everyone who could not defeat them could not defeat them, and few of them had a high level. "If anyone can see, locate, lock and take down an aircraft no matter how small, how low and fast it flies, and whether the link is silent or not, it may be the only one, but the technical level has not yet reached that level."

from the perspective of UAV application field, although China's UAV enterprises have been in the world's advanced position in the civil field, there are also many problems in practice

for example, according to the current situation of industrial UAVs, the market pattern is still chaotic. This cake is divided into very small parts. Basically, every family can occupy a piece, and no one can dominate. From the upstream, middle and downstream of the industrial UAV, the upstream provides devices and modules, which are relatively well done. The most difficult thing is to be a midstream and downstream service provider, especially the whole machine service provider. "The midstream and downstream are now maintaining, waiting for breakthrough and integration."

in terms of military UAVs, there are stricter requirements for the technical level and comprehensive ability of the R & D team. For private enterprises to participate in military projects, the "four certificates for military industry" is a huge threshold. It is difficult for ordinary enterprises to maintain such a system. "The main disadvantages of military UAV technology are long development cycle, slow response to demand, need to follow the process within the system, and high cost and lack of competitiveness in the civil market". On the issue of civil military integration, most of them are "people joining the army". Especially in the past twoorthree years, industrial UAVs have entered the military field and began to increase gradually. In the process of in-depth reform, the country is different from year to year, but military civilian integration obviously needs a process. "Maybe five years later, it will be another scene." Once this field is opened up, the future of China's UAV will be more powerful. At present, the reason why we can not get through is that in addition to their own attributes, the top-down guidance is not enough for the company on the specified date or within the time arranged by the company itself

in the field of consumption, although there are thousands of companies, and there are upstream, midstream and downstream companies, the pattern is basically dead, that is, one company is dominant. "It is hard to shake the pattern of those companies that rose a few years ago." In his opinion, the technology accumulation of X Xinjiang is forward-looking, and at the same time, it also accumulates word-of-mouth. Once this thing is established, it is difficult to change. Unless there are any accidents or quality problems, and the word-of-mouth is lost, otherwise it is basically impossible. As far as industrial applications are concerned, it has not yet reached the eruption period on the whole, which directly leads to the fact that most of the enterprises in the middle and lower reaches are still throwing money in, rather than in the harvest season. "It is possible that there will be a jump in the relaxation of policies in the next few years."

the effects of capital reshuffle and technology reshuffle are not significant

throwing money can not harvest, which may not be the most fatal. The lack of awesome in technology update may be the most deadly. However, in his opinion, there will not be so many new technologies in the short term, whether it is four axis six axis or other aircraft types. What we need to do next is to apply and experience

in front of us, first of all, the surviving research team has recently adopted the reactive extrusion method to realize the one-step green preparation of polylactic acid polyurethane elastomers

take the field of plant protection as an example. Now, based on the national policy preference for plant protection, the prospect is good in theory. "But if you want to make money, you still need a lot of places. For example, in the plains, it is still very difficult to make money if you divide it into small pieces, 20 mu in the East and 20 mu in the West." In his opinion, only when the state makes overall planning can enterprises survive and develop. "Plant protection is a trend, and the cost of spraying pesticides is relatively low." Considering that UAV flight always has a certain loss rate, he said that the state subsidy is still low, and relevant departments need to make overall planning in agriculture, such as where it is suitable for promotion and what characteristics each province has, so key subsidies can be implemented

he was also very skeptical about the "precision spraying" that every plant protection UAV company talked about all day long. What exactly is precision? In his opinion, on the one hand, the level of atomization, including atomized particles, concentration and flow rate, determines the effect of spraying. On the other hand, it has something to do with the significant environmental protection benefits. The local wind force, route planning, flight speed and how close the aircraft is to the plants on that day. It can ensure that the atomized particles can adhere to the surface of the plants in the largest area. This is the so-called accurate spraying. In his opinion, the success of the plant protection field ultimately depends on the policy. Without policy support, plant protection cannot rise. China's aviation plant protection or UAV plant protection is still in its infancy. The UAV operation area of plant protection is relatively small, accounting for less than 1%, while the agricultural aviation operations in the United States and Japan account for 50% and 54% of the cultivated land area respectively. Considering its market and potential, will plant protection become the next real explosive point in the next few years? In his opinion, it will not be so fast, at least not for twoorthree years. The reason for this is that China is still a large traditional agricultural country, and the promotion of new technologies needs a process

the plant protection industry has developed to the present. Just like the consumer industry, the reshuffle has also been carried out in the process of adding weight layer by layer. One of the most common is to use the form of price war to eliminate competitors. In order to achieve this goal, they even sell their own products at a price lower than the cost. This move is really very powerful. Because of the price war, many enterprises have also fallen, but it is not easy to achieve the truly shocking shuffle

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